by Kevin Roth (KevinRothWx) Last Updated 2022-12-23 23:41:38
This is without a doubt one of the worst, if not the single worst week of weather I’ve ever seen in the NFL. As usual in my NFL weather forecasts, the main focus is to identify games with high winds or heavy rain. Of all possible weather variables, wind is the biggest detriment to offenses, with a 15+mph wind being impactful and anything over 20mph sustained becoming a major problem for passing and kicking. Rain is another important factor in scoring, in particular heavy rain, which makes it harder to both throw and catch a pass, as well as turnovers increasing across the board. Temperature rarely impacts scoring, so it will only be noted here in extreme cases, like late-season games with temps below freezing. You can use this to your advantage making your picks on DFS sites and sportsbooks.
It’s also worth noting that while winds are fairly predictable a few days out, trying to pinpoint rain over a stadium is difficult even a few hours ahead of a game. So for the very latest info as the NFL Week 16 forecast changes, stay tuned to @KevinRothWx on Twitter or check my main NFL weather forecast page.
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NFL Week 16 Weather Report & Forecast
Saturday – December 24th
Houston at Tennessee Titans – Frigid, but otherwise fine. Temps likely around 20 degrees with light winds and no precip. Not ideal, but not likely to have major impacts either.
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns – The ugliest game of the week, because it’s the windiest game of the week. Could see some snow or blowing snow, though most of that will be clearing pregame / early game, and temps are brutal around 10 degrees, but it’s the wind that really matters. Sustained winds here will be 20-30mph with wind gusts over 40. That’s going to make longer throws and FG’s extremely difficult, and will even impact the intermediate passing game. Runs and short passes will rule the day.
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears – The second worst game of the week, where again the wind trumps even the cold (10 degrees) and precip (some blowing snow possible though nothing fresh falling). Winds here will be 20-25mph, with gusts 30-35. Again longer passes and FG’s are essentially a no-go.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs – Temp in the single digits with a 10mph wind. Brutal weather in general, but because of the light winds it won’t be hugely impactful to the game itself.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots – Gametime temperature in the 20s with a 10-15mph wind. Not ideal, but will only bring minor impacts to the game.
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens – A couple of chilly birds here, temp in the 20s, 10-15mph. Not great weather by any stretch, but not hugely impactful to the game either.
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburg Steelers – Temperature around 10 degrees with a 10-15mph. Just brutal weather for the average fan, but for players with the benefits of heaters and hand warmers it will just be a minor bump down to offenses.
Sunday – December 25th
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins – After a wild Saturday things look a whole lot better on Sunday, Merry Christmas to us. Our only non-roof game is in Miami, where temps will be in the 50s, the winds will be light (10mph), and the chance for showers is fairly low.
Monday Night Football – December 26th
Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts – Roof game, no worries!
Overall Week 16 Weather Forecast
When looking for an edge, I’m always trying to find high winds first, rain/snow second, and cold temperatures a distant third. This week we’ve got a plethora of extreme cold games, and all of those will see at least some impact from the frigid temps, but the games that stand out to me are those with the cold and the wind. This week it’s clear that Cleveland has the ugliest weather, to the point where “3 handoffs and a punt” might not be a bad outcome on a drive, except for the fact that the punt might boomerang back towards the line of scrimmage. Moving the ball is going to be tough in those winds. Chicago is also ugly in the wind department, though winds there won’t be quite as high as what we’ll see in Cleveland. As I mentioned earlier, it’s best to follow forecasts right up until kickoff, so stay tuned to @KevinRothWx for the latest.
Image Credit: Imagn
