21 October 2024
The government has launched a major review of sentencing policy that will aim to find a long-term solution to the overcrowding crisis in our prisons.
Rt Hon David Gauke, the former justice secretary and a trustee of the Prison Reform Trust, has been appointed chair of the sentencing review. To maintain his and the charity’s independence, Mr Gauke will step down as a trustee of the charity for the duration of his appointment as chair of the review.
Central to the aim of the review must be a commitment to bring overall numbers in prison and the use of imprisonment down to a more proportionate and sustainable level. England and Wales has one of the highest imprisonment rates in western Europe at 140 people per 100,000 head of population, second only to Scotland (150 people per 100,000) and which is currently facing its own prison capacity crisis.1Institute for Crime and Policy Research. (n.d.). Highest to lowest – Prison population rate. World Prison Brief. Retrieved October 21, 2024, from https://www.prisonstudies.org/highest-to-lowest/prison_population_rate?field_region_taxonomy_tid=14 The prison population has risen by 93% in past 30 years and currently stands at just over 87,000. It is predicted to rise by as high as 114,800 by March 2028.2See Prison Reform Trust. (2024) Bromley Briefings Prison Factfile: February 2024.
The growth in the prison population over the past three decades has mostly been driven by sentence inflation at the more serious end of offending. However, a rising recall and remand population, and an increase in police officer numbers leading to a rise in arrests and convictions, have also contributed to the rise in prison numbers since the end of the pandemic.
For serious, indictable offences, the average prison sentence is now 62.4 months — almost two years longer than in 2010. More than two and a half times as many people were sentenced to 10 years or more in 2022 than in 2010.3See Prison Reform Trust. (2024) Bromley Briefings Prison Factfile: February 2024.
Punitive changes to the sentencing framework introduced by successive governments over the past three decades have been a significant factor behind the overall increase in sentence length and rise in prison numbers. For instance, schedule 21 of the Criminal Justice Act 2003 increased the minimum tariff length for a range of types of murder offences. As consequence, the average length of minimum term rose from 13 years in 2000 to 21 years in 2021.4See Prison Reform Trust. (2024) Bromley Briefings Prison Factfile: February 2024.
Sentence inflation has contributed to a prison system characterised by chronic levels of overcrowding and indecent and inhumane conditions in many establishments. The pressure of increasing demand means that the system has little bandwidth to do more than warehouse the ever-growing number of prisoners in its care. A focus on rehabilitation and reducing the risk of reoffending on release is sidelined to the demands of population management.
Prisons have been under emergency capacity measures since November 2022. The latest round of measures — known as SDS40 — were introduced by the new government in September 2024. However, they are expected to buy the government less than 12 months breathing space before prisons will again become dangerously overcrowded. Further emergency measures are widely predicted will be needed by summer 2025.
In announcing this important review, the government has acknowledged the reality that it simply cannot build its way out of the capacity crisis. The current rate of prison building can’t keep pace with increasing demand. Furthermore, at a time when public finances are constrained, building more prisons is expensive and wasteful of taxpayers’ money.
Without a strategy to also reduce demand on the system by curbing sentence inflation:
- The system can’t look beyond next capacity crisis — there is no bandwidth for further improvement.
- The government will not be able to tackle chronic levels of overcrowding which is a key factor contributing to many of the problems in our prisons.
- The government won’t be able to take prisons offline which are no longer fit for purpose.
Commenting, Mark Day, deputy director of the Prison Reform Trust, said:
“The current capacity crisis has bought our criminal justice system close to collapse. Emergency measures are not a long-term solution. We urgently need to get to grips with runaway sentence inflation which has contributed to chronic levels of overcrowding and driven prison numbers and our use of imprisonment up to an unsustainable level. This important review is a vital opportunity to reset the dial on decades of failure in penal policymaking.”
Responding to the news that the review will not include the sentence of imprisonment for public protection (IPP) or its administration, Day added:
“It is vital that the government does not lose sight of the ongoing injustice faced by thousands of people still subject to the abolished IPP sentence. Particular effort needs to be focussed on progressing the sentences of those who have never been released and remain in prison many times over the length of their original tariff.”