NFL Weather and Odds Watch - Week 8 (2024)

It will be a windy, rainy, hot and sticky, and possibly snowy Halloween Weekend across the NFL... with several matchups on the Week 8 odds board impacted by the elements.

While it’s just Tuesday, I get ahead of the extended forecast and highlight how the potential gameday weather will alter the results and how to bet the NFL odds accordingly before making any NFL picks.

We look to the skies of the NFL Week 8 Weather Report.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills Weather

The Buffalo Bills are back home in a foul mood after Week 7’s upset loss to the rival Patriots. And Orchard Park could be the perfect setting for a rebound performance Thursday night.

The forecast for Highmark Stadium is calling for “Feels Like” temperatures in the low 60s with wind gusts picking up after the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. Gusts are expected to reach 24 mph by the second half, blowing SSW in a diagonal crosswind.

This Over/Under total opened at 42.5 points and is down a touch to 42 as of Tuesday. This has more to do with Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield and WR Chris Godwin sitting out practice Monday, ahead of the short week.

If the winds do influence any offense, it would be the Bills’ deeper strikes. Buffalo is eighth in yards per pass attempt and Josh Allen sits No. 4 in intended air yards, with the Bills producing 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards this season (ninth). That said, if any QB can throw into the wind without care, it's Allen.

Field goal kicking could also be impacted. Bills kicker Tyler Bass went 1-for-2 on field goal attempts in breezy Foxborough last weekend and owns a success rate of just 76.9% on the season. He’s only 4 of 7 on FGAs of 40+ yards.

However, Tampa Bay is dead last in third-down defense (50%), so Buffalo may not have to settle for field goals. The Bills haven’t been stout on third downs either (42.35%), and Bucs kicker Chase McLaughlin is 11-for-12 on FGAs, including 2 of 2 on kicks of 50+.

The field goal markets for Thursday Night Football have an Over/Under of 2.5 FGs made (Over -160) and the longest FG made has a total of 45.5 yards (Over -115).

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Weather

You’ll want to keep a close eye on the weather in Wisconsin later in the week.

As of Tuesday, the extended forecast says morning rains will stop right around this 1 p.m. ET kickoff but some models call for a higher chance of rain into the afternoon. Game-time temperatures will feel like 38 degrees with NWN winds hitting highs of 16 mph (corner to corner).

As the indoor team, the Minnesota Vikings could be influenced most by any bad weather. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has seen a notable decline in his career numbers when going from indoor to outdoor venues, with his outdoor passer rating at 92.8 and completion rate dipping to 65.28% (from 68% in dome/retractable).

This NFC North rivalry has a Over/Under total of 42.5 after dropping from an opener of 43 shortly after the Vikings’ win over San Francisco on Monday Night Football. The Green Bay Packers are 1-point home favorites.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Weather

Hot and windy is an uncommon combo, but we’re talking about Florida in the fall. Sunday’s AFC East grudge match between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots will be impacted by both in Week 8.

Temperatures will hit a “Feels Like” spot of 97 degrees and there's a chance of spotty rain showers in the area. The extended forecast for Miami Gardens calls for sustained winds of 16 mph with wind gusts up to 30 mph for this 1 p.m. ET start. Those breezes are blowing ENE from corner to corner at Hard Rock Stadium.

Any longer passing plays could get pushed around by those gusts and neither side is especially good at kicking field goals.

New England kicker Chad Ryland is the worst at it in the NFL with a success rate of just 66.7%, however, he was 3-for-3 on FGAs in the upset over Buffalo last weekend.

As for the Dolphins, kicker Jason Sanders has only attempted eight field goals thanks to Miami’s offensive efficiency, and has made six of those boots. He placed 30th among 40 qualified kickers in accuracy last season (81.3%).

The warm temps will also play a big role in favor of the home side. New England will get a shock to the system in the South Beach heat, with the humidity making it feel close to 100 degrees. The Dolphins’ lightning-fast offense can wear down defenses quickly in that climate, as we’ve seen in recent home stands for the Fins.

The Dolphins' team total is at 28.5 points (Over +102). Miami is averaging 47.7 points per home game through three contests in Hard Rock Stadium, and the team has topped this total in all three of its home stands in 2023 after going 1-7 O/U vs. its team total at home in 2022.

Miami is currently a 9.5-point favorite with the game Over/Under at 47 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers Weather

The forecast for Pittsburgh is much like the Steelers’ 4-2 start to the season: messy.

Light rain is in the picture throughout this 1 p.m. ET kickoff with a 62% chance of precipitation over Acrisure Stadium (still sounds funny). Winds will top out with gusts of 16 mph blowing SW from corner to corner at the former Heinz Field.

That slick Kentucky Bluegrass could help slow down a speedy Jacksonville Jaguars offense that runs the ninth-fastest tempo in terms of seconds per snap — especially on the ground. The Jaguars run 46% of their handoffs to the end and breaking off that edge could be tougher if the turf is soaked.

Jacksonville opened as a 1-point home chalk and this line has crept to -2.5 at most books. The total opened at 41 and is up to 42 points at some shops.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Weather

Wow. We’re not even out of October and we have a chance for our first snow sighting of the 2023 NFL season.

The extended forecast for Denver is calling for snow showers early Sunday. Some projections say that will pass by the time this AFC West war kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET, but others could see that winter weather hanging around before clearing in the second half.

There won’t be any snow accumulation, as this will be more slush showers than snowstorms, but visibility could be an issue downfield if that white stuff shows up after the opening kick. Neither offense tends to air it out, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos toward the bottom in terms of intended air yards.

The snow showers could also leave the Kentucky Bluegrass surface at Empower Stadium a tad slippery, which could slow the Chiefs’ run game that goes outside on a league-high 59% of handoffs.

What we do know is that it’s going to be cold in Colorado. Game-time temperatures will feel like the low 20s (-5 Celsius) with winds only getting up to 10 mph gusts.

The Over/Under is holding at 46 points while the Chiefs are laying as many as -8 on the road.

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